I think the Initial COVID-19 Crisis will end the weekend of April 17, or the week of April 20 at the latest. I don’t mean that the battle will be done – I mean that that initial, intense, “pull the fire alarm,” how-did-we-get-here feeling of crisis will be done, and we’ll be at a major inflection point.
Between now (April 1) and then, I expect we'll see:
Some regularity around the new ways of working and operating
Some normalcy for companies that are not at the epicenter of the crisis
Evidence of how well our efforts to mitigate the spread and expand treatment capacity work
Better understanding about how the virus works from widespread testing (like how the virus performs in the body)
I am generally an optimist, so if things go well in the next 2+ weeks, I expect that mid-April weekend to be the inflection point when people start focusing on Life After The Great Flattening of 2020. And the Memorial Day weekend seems like a target to have the broader economy start to come back to life.
But if things don’t go well in the next few weeks, then that mid-April weekend will be the inflection point when business leaders hunker down for a longer-term economic slow-down. The attitude will change from, “Let’s keep things on track as best we can,” to, “I’m outta here – wake me up when this has passed.”
What does this mean strategically? Since it’s just a couple of weeks away, don’t pull the trigger on any big decisions you can delay for a couple of weeks. And take some time during this “waiting time” to build some game plans for the good and the bad scenarios.
If you're looking for strategy advice, check out my Winning The Uncertainty Resources.